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Thursday, January 25, 2007

Apple iPhone = Buy Puts
: :
I know what you're thinking, but I have nothing against the company... it's just that I don't believe the hype. In fact, I never really believe any hype until I experience it myself - first hand. If the hype is warranted, then I embrace the hype and become the hype. If the hype is based on a company's track record or previous customer product experience, I say "prove it."



Sure it looks cool, but no one has experienced the iPhone, yet. I look at that juicy screen and wonder what it will look like after a few hours of my smudgy fingers all over it. How hard will it be to finger in text? Will the "ear/body heat sensor" work 100% of the time when I put the phone to my ear, or will it only work 98% of the time, leaving me with a horrible 2% experience that outweighs the 98%.

It's for these reasons that I see opportunity when a stock goes from $86 to $97 based on "hype." I buy puts.



Feb Expiration - 80 strike. I'm hoping there's a little more hype priced into this one. Leading macro indicators are also pointing to a market correction. Now would be a great time to smash the hype out of this stock, and get it more in line with its actual value.

2 Comments:

At 2/26/2007 12:03 AM, Anonymous said...

Word.

I like your bold and brash style.

I always begin to worry when a Company's CEO begins to believe his / her own hype (read Steve Jobs).

 
At 3/29/2007 11:15 AM, Jake B. said...

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/apple-should-pull-plug-iphone/story.aspx?guid=%7B3289E5E2%2DE67C%2D4395%2D8A8E%2DB94C1B480D4A%7D&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo

 

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