Windows Vista GA is Nigh
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The Windows Vista GA (General Availability) launch is in 3 days, 9 hours and 20 minutes.

I'll be celebrating the launch in NYC with a full roster of events.

Stay tuned...

posted by Jake B. @ 2:38:00 PM 1 comments   

Apple iPhone = Buy Puts
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I know what you're thinking, but I have nothing against the company... it's just that I don't believe the hype. In fact, I never really believe any hype until I experience it myself - first hand. If the hype is warranted, then I embrace the hype and become the hype. If the hype is based on a company's track record or previous customer product experience, I say "prove it."



Sure it looks cool, but no one has experienced the iPhone, yet. I look at that juicy screen and wonder what it will look like after a few hours of my smudgy fingers all over it. How hard will it be to finger in text? Will the "ear/body heat sensor" work 100% of the time when I put the phone to my ear, or will it only work 98% of the time, leaving me with a horrible 2% experience that outweighs the 98%.

It's for these reasons that I see opportunity when a stock goes from $86 to $97 based on "hype." I buy puts.



Feb Expiration - 80 strike. I'm hoping there's a little more hype priced into this one. Leading macro indicators are also pointing to a market correction. Now would be a great time to smash the hype out of this stock, and get it more in line with its actual value.

posted by Jake B. @ 3:00:00 PM 2 comments   

What Will 2007 Bring?
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My blog posts have become less frequent. This is partly by design and partly due to the advent of the working world. The advent of the New Year will bring more advents, to be sure, but before moving on to new things I'll take a moment to revisit the old.

2006 Key Milestones

• Graduation - from the University of Michigan MBA program
• Turning 30 - and saying goodbye to my roaring 20's and hello to being an "old person"
• Starting a new job in the Windows group at Microsoft

2006 Predictions Assessment

Ouch. After looking at those top 9 predictions again, I think I won't comment on 8 of the 9. Instead let's look at #4, my 2006 stock predictions:

4. MSFT (26.15), YHOO (39.18), SID (21.40), CAT (57.77), MO (74.72), ALD (29.37), SFI (35.65) will outperform the S&P 500 index. (Respective prices on close of trading day 12/30/2005)

Results: MSFT (29.99), YHOO (25.45), SID (29.91), CAT (60.90), MO (85.20), ALD (32.58), SFI (47.81) - all prices are as of close on 12/25/2006.

10.7% Return. Pathetic. I beat the Nasdaq (9%) but failed to beat the S&P & Dow (15%, 16% respectively).

Take Yahoo out of the equation (which posted a -53.9% last year), and I beat all indexes with with a portfolio return of over 16.5%.

Wouldda, Couldda, Shouldda. Lesson learned.

This year I am going with a new look: TKG (81.10), IRBT (18.24), NHY (30.13), GRMN (54.95), EWO (36.20), IWS (146.36), RSP (47.36).

Put that in pot and let it simmer until 2008. See you then.

posted by Jake B. @ 4:19:00 PM 0 comments   

Windows Vista Business Launch
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Windows Vista is now officially available to business customers (these are customers that have licensing agreements with Microsoft).

Are you...


This means the really exicting consumer launch is only two short months away (don't worry if you are planning on purchasing a computer for Christmas - you'll still get Windows Vista when it is released).

posted by Jake B. @ 10:30:00 AM 0 comments   

Vista Goes RTM
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It's official... Windows Vista has gone RTM.



Now it's time to gear up for some frenetic Windows Vista Launch marketing.

posted by Jake B. @ 11:18:00 PM 1 comments